February
HSBC warns on Household International
AI analogueS&P’s Oracle downgrade, Jupiter loan pricing, force majeure notice
SepReached
OctReached
October evidenceJupiter loans still 89–91; Oracle CDS record 288bp; New Mexico permit hearing 26 Oct
March to AprilSecond station: CoreWeave
New Century, a specialist lender, collapses
AI analogueNone
SepNot reached
OctPriced, not realised
October evidenceSecond station lit: CoreWeave. Unsecured bonds below 80; swaps imply ~64% five-year default; tenant at Lancaster, Helios, Digital Drive
JuneSep: we were here
Bear Stearns hedge funds gate and fail
AI analogueBlue Owl fund tenders: 13.1% acceptance, paid in notes
SepPartial
OctPartial, persistent
October evidenceRedemption requests ~40% of the fund every quarter of 2026; 5% repurchased (~13% of requests)
June to July
Hung LBO loans; banks stuck with bridge debt
AI analogueBanks holding Jupiter debt; Lancaster syndication struggle
SepEmerging
OctEmerging
October evidence$38bn Oracle package took months to sell down; lab junior debt 8.5% to >10%
JulyOct, credit: about here
AAA ABS and CDO spreads gap wider
AI analogueAAA data-centre CMBS 225bp new-issue talk
SepEarly, not yet a trend
OctReached in investment-grade project bonds
October evidenceMicrosoft-leased Excalibur bonds below 88; Meta Hyperion ~92; AAA CMBS marked ~165–175bp
August
BNP Paribas freezes funds; interbank funding seizes
AI analogueNo disclosed bank losses or marks on AI loans; no funding lines pulled
SepNot reached
OctNot reached
October evidenceNo default, missed coupon, covenant breach or fund freeze reported
OctoberOct, equities: about here
Stocks peak on narrowing leadership while credit breaks
AI analogueSemiconductors fall ~16% from 6 Oct peak; S&P 500 ~2%
Sepn/a
OctForming
October evidenceEquity clock running ahead of the credit clock; Holtec IPO withdrawn, SB Energy postponed